• Breaking News

    Sunday, October 18, 2020

    Home Unlabelled Old School RuneScape: Have a question about the game or the subreddit? Ask away!

    Old School RuneScape: Have a question about the game or the subreddit? Ask away!

    October 18, 2020

    Old School RuneScape: Have a question about the game or the subreddit? Ask away!

    Have a question about the game or the subreddit? Ask away!

    Posted: 17 Oct 2020 05:08 PM PDT

    Daily /r/2007scape question thread for Sunday, October 18 2020 (posted on 00:08:07 UTC - RuneScape server time)

    Ask anything about Old School RuneScape here! They are designated for you to ask anything you like that is relevant to the game or this subreddit. Remain respectful to your fellow 'scapers when answering questions; there are stupid questions, but it does not mean you should not be respectful whilst answering them.

    Click here to view the archive of /r/2007scape "ask anything" threads.

    submitted by /u/AutoModerator
    [link] [comments]

    The one thing we all have in common amongst this drama

    Posted: 18 Oct 2020 08:15 AM PDT

    Les Aventure de Agility

    Posted: 18 Oct 2020 04:09 AM PDT

    *Laughs in chinchompa*

    Posted: 18 Oct 2020 07:48 AM PDT

    Captain James Cook landing in Australia, 29th April 1770. (Colourised)

    Posted: 17 Oct 2020 10:23 PM PDT

    Osrs players, ignore homework to scape. Also Osrs players:

    Posted: 18 Oct 2020 01:40 AM PDT

    OMG Guys W366 its happening!

    Posted: 18 Oct 2020 05:11 AM PDT

    These 2 same bots have been spamming at GE for about a week straight now, ive never seen same bots stay "alive" this long. Come on Jagex.

    Posted: 18 Oct 2020 05:16 AM PDT

    2007scape trying to explain how Swampletics actually dropped all his gear himself so that he can milk his youtube series for longer

    Posted: 18 Oct 2020 05:36 AM PDT

    Swampletics Death Test [most accurate 1:1 recreation]

    Posted: 18 Oct 2020 08:05 AM PDT

    Dying in a videogame? Impossible

    Posted: 18 Oct 2020 05:26 AM PDT

    Vamp Claws Good

    Posted: 18 Oct 2020 09:57 AM PDT

    Just a simple appreciation post. I really enjoy the music J1mmy creates and love his videos l

    Posted: 18 Oct 2020 07:34 AM PDT

    Three years ago a friend and I heard about Old School Runescape and made accounts to check it out and have a nostalgic weekend adventure. Fast forward to present day and we have both completed what was once an unthinkable challenge: The Inferno. Here's to three years of exploring Gielinor together!

    Posted: 18 Oct 2020 10:18 AM PDT

    Swampman Banter

    Posted: 17 Oct 2020 03:19 PM PDT

    A Probabilistic Analysis of Swampletic's last video

    Posted: 17 Oct 2020 10:02 PM PDT

    tl;dr- Swampletics was almost certain to die by going afk while being attacked by a feral vampyre

    ** EDIT **

    Some people have pointed out some mistakes I've made below- I appreciate it, I'm fairly new to Runescape.

    • /u/Hailgod pointed out that I forgot to include the +64 bonus to Swampletics gear defense. Including that reduced the hit probability to 7.97%
    • /u/edbsolquery found an error where I forgot to include 0 as a possible hit, even on success. I've corrected that.
    • I still see conflicting information about how long the log out timer is- waiting on someone to come in with proof here.
    • Several people pointed out that Feral Vampyres have a chance to drain stats. I don't think we're able to model this, since the wiki doesn't have information on how likely the stat drain is or how severe. It would also make it way more complicated, and I don't feel like doing that.

    Both those changes made it more unlucky that Swampletics died while AFK- below is the updated death CDF.

    https://i.imgur.com/w1qPx6L.jpg

    Chance of death:

    10 minutes in Karils: 0.025416923756786964

    15 minutes in Karils: 0.35333357939072357

    20 minutes in Karils: 0.80386

    ** Original **

    In a recent video, Settled claimed that his region locked UIM died to a Feral Vampyre after going afk in a 30 square region of Morytania. This provoked wild conspiracy theories, accusations, and rampant speculation that this was faked.

    A main charge for conspiracy is that Swampletics, with 99 HP, 95 Defense, and wearing full barrows gear, could not have been killed by a level 61 feral vampyre with a max hit of 7. I was curious if this was possible, so I solved for the probability that a Feral Vampyre deals more than 99 damage in N minutes, and find that the probability of death was near certain given a 15 to 20 minute logout timer.

    I found conflicting information on the amount of time that Swampletics would have been logged in for before being afk logged, and hope people will be able to clarify in the comments.

    Before getting into the math, I think we should take Settled at his word. As a fan of the series, when I started this analysis I was hoping the result would be "Wow, Settled got really unlucky", rather than "Wow, Settled is trying to lie to people". What I found instead is that it is near certain that Swampletics would have died going afk while being attacked.

    My assumptions will also try to be an upper bound on the probability of him dying, favoring things that aid him surviving, to show that he would likely die in the best of cases.

    Assumptions

    • Swampletics had 99 HP when he went AFK. I think this is fair assumption to make, since he pointed out that these were the only 30 tiles he was in danger for. Obviously, if he had less HP then the chance of him dying will be higher, so this gives the lower bound.
    • Swampletics was wearing Karil's top and Karil's bottom. I will discuss the implications of this assumption later, and compare to if he was wearing full Guthans and the rune boots which he discarded earlier in the episode
    • Auto-retaliate was off- this means we are hit every 4 ticks. This was confirmed by people checking the XP gains from the date in the video
    • Swampletics was on Defensive attack style (we saw him switch earlier in the video)

    Feral Vampyres

    • Attack speed: 4 ticks
    • Max hit: 7
    • Attack: 55 (no other modifiers)
    • Attack style (stab)

    Swampletics

    • Defensive statistic: 94
    • HP: 99

    Possible Gear:

    • Guthix d'hide boots (+ 4 stab defense)
    • Rune kiteshield (g) (+ 44 stab defense)
    • Guthan's helm (+ 55 stab defense)
    • Amulet of glory (+ 3 stab defense)
    • Karil's Top (+ 47 stab defense)
    • Karil's Bottom: (+ 26 stab defense)
    • Guthan's Top (+ 122 stab defense)
    • Guthan's Bottom (+ 75 stab defense)
    • Rune boots (+ 12 stab defense)
    • Combat Bracelet (+ 5 stab defense)

    Bonus stab defense (Karils): 185

    Bonus stab defense (Guthans): 316

    Hit Chances

    Feral Vampyre

    • Effective level = (55 + 8) = 63
    • Bonus = 0 + 64 = 64
    • Max attack roll = 63 * 64 = 4032

    Swampletics:

    Gear Bonus Max Defensive Roll Chance to hit
    Karils 185 17945 0.11237136
    Guthans 316 306520 0.0657706

    Modeling

    To simplify calculations, we let each timestep in the model be one attack by the feral vampyre, or 4 in-game ticks.

    Let X be the random variable corresponding to the amount of damage done to Swampletics by a single attack of the Feral Vampyre. Then for hit probability p and max hit n, X is distributed such that

    P(X = 0) = 1 - p P(X = i | 0 < i < n) = p * 1/n

    Let Z_n be the amount of HP restored at a time. This is at a rate of 1 HP per minute, or

    Z_n = 1 | n is divisible by 25 Z_n = 0 | otherwise

    This is the biggest simplification that I have made to this calculation- I don't think it matters in the long run, but technically we should only restore hit points 25 attacks after the HP drops the first time, and then reset the timer whenever it is restored to 99. Honestly I don't think it changes the results that much and I CBA to calculate this perfectly.

    We model Swampletic's health as a Y_n with the following properties:

    Y_0 = 99 (Starting HP) Y_i = 0 | Y_{i - 1} = 0 (Swampletics is dead) Y_i = min(max(Y_{i-1} - X + Z_n, i), 99) | otherwise

    This just means that the HP after each attack is the HP after the previous attack (Y_{i-1}), minus the damage from the attack (X), plus the amount healed (Z_i), but clamped between 0 and 99.

    Implementation:

    This is usually the point in Reddit posts that I see people say something like "I coded up all these rules and ran a simulation 10/1,000/1,000,000 times- these are the results!".

    While there is nothing wrong with that, and simulation is a valuable tool when we need it, this system only has 100 possible states and we can calculate the exact probability of a death. I'm not sure the best way to share this code since my post keeps getting removed for having a link in it.

    The general approach is to maintain a probability vector of dimension 100, where index i contains the probability that Swampletics has i hitpoints at the current timestamp. The vector is then updated with a simple stochastic matrix that we build based on the damage calculations above.

    Every 25 timesteps, we swap the transition matrix for a separate one which includes the HP regeneration. This ends up not really making a difference in the death probability.

    There is probably some room for optimization in the code I've written, but it doesn't really matter since the problem size is small.

    Results

    ** See update above- this is slightly wrong **

    Wearing Karils, Swampletics will be unlikely to die for the first 200 game attacks, after which the probability of death increases roughly linearly between 21% and 85% in the next 100 attacks, after which the death probability starts to have a longer tail. At 10 minutes (250 attacks) the probability of a death was 57%, and at 15 minutes the probability of death is 98%.

    https://i.imgur.com/zMtntzv.jpg

    Given the relatively high hit chance (an 11% chance to hit will hit at least once a minute with a probability over 95%), and the low damage amount, it makes sense that the expected death time has a relatively narrow window. Swampletics would have had to have been extremely lucky to survive for more than 20 minutes.

    This changes a bit if the swamp man was wearing full Guthans and hadn't dropped his rune boots- at 10 minutes (250 attacks) the probability of a death was 1.4%, and at 15 minutes the probability of death was 25.765%.

    https://i.imgur.com/Wvjfvg2.jpg

    Conclusion:

    I was honestly crushed by the end of the last episode- Settled had opened up about his anxiety that something like this would happen in his Swamp Nightmares video in May, and its clear how much he's invested into this account and series. I hope he is doing ok, and am looking forward to the update he is putting out in a few days.

    That said, I spent way too long putting this post together, am slightly drunk, and hope someone points out any mistakes I've made.

    Code included:

    import numpy as np import matplotlib.pyplot as plt HP_MAX = 99 HIT_PROBABILITY_KARILS = 0.11237136 HIT_PROBABILITY_GUTHANS = 0.0657706 VAMPYRE_MAX_DAMAGE = 7 TWENTY_MINUTES_IN_ATTACKS = 20*25 def build_transition_matrices(hit_chance, max_damage): transition_no_healing = np.zeros((HP_MAX + 1, HP_MAX + 1)) transition_healing = np.zeros((HP_MAX + 1, HP_MAX + 1)) # If we die, die forever- 0 never transitions to another state transition_no_healing[0, 0] = 1.0 transition_healing[0,0] = 1.0 for i in range(1, HP_MAX + 1): transition_no_healing[i, i] = 1 - hit_chance transition_healing[i, min(i + 1, HP_MAX)] = 1 - hit_chance for j in range(1, max_damage + 1): hit_result = max(i - j, 0) hit_result_healing = min(max(i - j + 1, 0), HP_MAX) transition_no_healing[i, hit_result] += hit_chance * 1/max_damage transition_healing[i, hit_result_healing] += hit_chance * 1/max_damage return (transition_no_healing, transition_healing) def calculate_death_prob(hit_chance, max_damage, num_ticks): death_probability = np.zeros(num_ticks) starting_health = np.zeros((1,HP_MAX + 1)) starting_health[0, 99] = 1 starting_health (transition_no_healing, transition_healing) = build_transition_matrices(hit_chance, max_damage) x = starting_health for i in range(num_ticks): death_probability[i] = x[0, 0] if (i % 25 == 0): x = np.matmul(x, transition_healing) else: x = np.matmul(x, transition_no_healing) return death_probability death_probs_karils = calculate_death_prob(HIT_PROBABILITY_KARILS, VAMPYRE_MAX_DAMAGE, TWENTY_MINUTES_IN_ATTACKS) death_probs_guthans = calculate_death_prob(HIT_PROBABILITY_GUTHANS, VAMPYRE_MAX_DAMAGE, TWENTY_MINUTES_IN_ATTACKS) fig = plt.figure() plt.plot(np.linspace(0, 20, TWENTY_MINUTES_IN_ATTACKS), death_probs_karils) fig.suptitle('Karils', fontsize=20) plt.xlabel('Time (minutes)', fontsize=18) plt.ylabel('Probability of death', fontsize=16) fig.savefig('karils.jpg') fig2 = plt.figure() plt.plot(np.linspace(0, 20, TWENTY_MINUTES_IN_ATTACKS), death_probs_guthans) fig2.suptitle('Guthans', fontsize=20) plt.xlabel('Time (minutes)', fontsize=18) plt.ylabel('Probability of death', fontsize=16) fig2.savefig('guthans.jpg')

    ​

    submitted by /u/halfmasta
    [link] [comments]

    Ladies and gentlemen we got em

    Posted: 17 Oct 2020 09:48 PM PDT

    Open Letter to Swamp Man Settled

    Posted: 18 Oct 2020 09:51 AM PDT

    Dear Swamp Man Settled (aka Swampletics),

    Having just watched your most recent video, you may be in need of some kind words if you're browsing this sub.

    In truth, your videos have never been about achieving your TOB goals, not really for most of us. We tune in to each episode to hear from you, about your progress, sharing whimsical stories, crazy odds and to hear about the hours you put into the game. More than most of us could, or would want to, dream of.

    It's about the community. You have helped to build and contribute to a positive community where we all come together to listen and swap swamp man stories. You, along with others, brought the UIM game mode into the mainstream spotlight, which is a welcome break from the PVP scene. Even I've been playing UIM as my main account since watching your videos, as I am sure many others have embraced iron culture.

    We all make mistakes. Sounds like you've had a rough time of it late. I imagine 'scaping as a full time job is lonely and isolating a lot of the time - especially if you're putting 10-12+ hours into the game, having to edit content and engage with fans.

    If what we read on here is true, you also went through a hard breakup recently. I'm sorry man - hope you're doing ok. Love is a lot like random events, sometimes you're lucky and you get a Genie...other times you might get an Evil Bob, Postie Pete, a Strange Plan or even a Flippa. If it's meant to be, it'll be. If not, hopefully you get the Genie event soon.

    So you may have had some help you on your account - I get that. It's hard playing for so long. I do believe you died to the Feral Vampyres, but see why people think you got stacked. Either way, it's a nice lesson that all things must come to an end and so the cycle goes on, it's what Runescape's all about. Growing up. Heck, we're all playing a mediaeval point and click adventure game from 2001. We've all done a lot of growing up throughout it's history and this is just another one of those times.

    Don't sweat it trying to put in the crazy hours you do for your videos - do what you can and we will totally get that it's not physically possible or healthy to put in 16+ hours every day. We're happy to wait, and we're happy with not as much progress.

    We're looking forward to whatever you do next for the account - rebuilding, restarting, whatever your plans are because it is, and always has been, about building community.

    Keep up the good fight.

    A friend.

    submitted by /u/MrDarco
    [link] [comments]

    (SUGGESTION) Move the stronghold of security to morytania so Swampletics can learn about account security.

    Posted: 17 Oct 2020 02:19 PM PDT

    Yellow text.

    submitted by /u/poopchuteluke
    [link] [comments]

    Since everyone liked my previous post, here's a full version of low level Carl for everyone to use

    Posted: 17 Oct 2020 06:01 PM PDT

    In light of the upcoming Shades of Mort'ton rework, change the name of the Amulet of the Damned to the Damnulet

    Posted: 18 Oct 2020 02:52 AM PDT

    Failing that, I'd settle for the Amulet of Punishment.

    submitted by /u/NoCurrencies
    [link] [comments]

    Swampletics #31 final frame

    Posted: 18 Oct 2020 06:14 AM PDT

    He could've just said "yeah"

    Posted: 17 Oct 2020 09:24 PM PDT

    We all know at least one

    Posted: 18 Oct 2020 08:18 AM PDT

    Satisfying video of me outplaying Corp crashers

    Posted: 17 Oct 2020 07:55 PM PDT
    Read more
    at

    No comments:

    Post a Comment